Appalachian State’s men’s basketball team entered the 2018-19 season with more hype than any time in recent years, and for good reason.
The program returned eight seniors from a team that finished fifth in the Sun Belt including Sun Belt second-team performer Ronshad Shabazz, and added a pair of talented freshman and transfers to the mix. This was supposed to be the year all the hard work Jim Fox and Jason Allison put into rebuilding the program finally paid off. To date, that has not been the case.
The team sits at 5-10 overall with a 0-2 start in conference play. While App has impressed against power competition including a single digit loss to Alabama and 10 point loss to Georgetown, the team has laid some duds recently including an embarrassing 33 point defeat to St. Louis. The uneven play has made this year’s squad especially frustrating to watch.
Despite the uninspiring start to the season, all is not lost for this year’s Mountaineers as there is still plenty of basketball to be played.
Home Court Advantage
The first reason App can turn it around is doing some home cooking. After a tough non-conference slate that featured several road trips with 10 of 15 games played on the road, App will be home for 9 of its remaining 16 contests.
On the season, the Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 in the friendly confines of the Holmes Convocation Center. While App is undefeated in Boone, life on the road has proven difficult as the team is 0-7 in true road games and 0-3 in neutral site contests.
While there will be a step up in competition coming to Boone from here on out, it is worth noting that overall App has outscored its opponents at home 497 to 345, that’s a per game average score of 99.4 to 69.
Senior Leadership
Appalachian is one of the most senior laden teams in the Sun Belt with eight four-year players. In spite of the inconsistent performance of the team thus far, the experience will eventually pay off.
That has already proven true with the improved play of Shabazz. The preseason first team all-conference selection has lifted his all-around play as the season has progressed.
Through the first six games, Shabazz scored 20 plus points on only two occasions and turned the ball over almost three times a game. However, in the last nine contests the 6ft 5in guard has crossed the 20 point threshold in all but two instances and essentially cut his turnovers in half to 1.6 per game.
Free Throw Shooting
Taking and making free throws is one of the most important factors in college basketball. As Rick Majerus once stated, “To win the big games you must get to the free throw line, and then you must make them.” Throughout the first eight games of the season, App was connecting on an abysmal 63 percent of its free throw attempts. However, since that time, App has hit its stride at the free throw line.
Over the current seven-game stretch the team is connecting on 82 percent of its attempts at the charity stripe.
In all, the Mountaineers are averaging 15 out of 21 free throws per game, and the latter number is of great significance.
The relationship of more free throw attempts equals more wins is a well-known fact in college basketball.
In a study conducted by the NCAA of 335 Division One programs, the median for free throws per game is 20.6. Teams that fell below the median had an average win percentage of just 48.9 percent. Schools that were above it won 54.6 percent of their games. That equals a pretty significant difference.
It also works the other way as well.
Of the 10 winningest programs since 2001, only one shot fewer free throws than the 20.6 median.
Eventually the evening out of the schedule, senior leadership, and free throw execution should add up to more wins for App State Men’s Basketball. I expect the team to make a run to the top half of the Sun Belt standings the rest of the regular season, and after that anything can happen come March.
